Effect of a Health Shock on Working Hours and Health Care Usage: The role of Financial Inclusion

This study explores the role of financial inclusion in the mitigation of the effects of a health shock at the household level. To that end, we examine empirically the effect of financial inclusion on household working hours and health care utilization, using round six of the Ghana Living Standard Survey data. We find that a health shock does decrease household working hours and increase the likelihood of health care utilization. This suggests that households in Ghana are not able to fully insure themselves against a health shock. However, we find that, faced with a health shock, households who are financially excluded see their working hours reduce more than those who enjoy full financial inclusion. Also, financial inclusion increases the likelihood of health care utilization when households experience a health shock. We find evidence that loan acquisition (borrowing) is one of the main mechanisms by which households can insure themselves against a health shock. Generally, our findings support the financial inclusion agenda of policymakers in Ghana and many other countries. Thus, efforts to ensure full financial inclusion will increase the probability of households using the financial sector as a means of insulating themselves against the effects of health shocks.JEL Classification Codes: O12, I10, G21, J22http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto

Economic De-integration in North America and Foreign Direct Investment from Japan

We investigate the impact of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and the resumption of auto tariffs under the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, on trade in North America and foreign direct investment (FDI) from Japan, from the perspective of the auto industry. The results of policy simulation analyses with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model are as follows. Canada and Mexico would benefit from US steel and aluminum tariffs, being alternative trade partners with both the US and other countries. Due to the auto tariffs on intra-North America exports, Canada and Mexico would lose a large part of the windfall benefits from the US steel and aluminum tariffs. Japan’s FDI in Canada and Mexico would fall sharply. The more de-integrated North American economies become, the more Japan would regain its auto production, although at a painful cost in terms of welfare. That negative welfare impact would be neutralized by abolition of auto tariffs with the US.This study is partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI (Nos. 16H0360, 19K01622). Firm-level data in the Survey on Overseas Business Activities are provided by the Japanese Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro

Using experimental manipulation of questionnaire design and a Kenyan panel to test for the reliability of reported perceptions of climate change and adaptation

While the use of surveys to understand perception of climate change and adaptation is common in research on agriculture, the reliability of aspects of the methodology is still largely untested. In particular there is limited evidence on (i) the degree to which measures of perception are sensitive to questionnaire design (ii) the accuracy of recall methods for climate change and (iii) the degree to which measures of adaptation based on recall from one-time surveys match the historical record. Using an established panel of farmers from across Kenya and a split sample method, I test both the sensitivity of stated perceptions of climate change to question format and the accuracy of recalled adaptations. In one treatment farmers face open-ended questions about temperature and rainfall changes while in the other treatment farmers are offered closed-end questions. Both approaches are common in the voluminous literature on climate change adaptation. Responses are highly sensitive to question format, both in the degree of perceived change and in the types of changes. Stated adaptations are not so sensitive to question format, but still diverge. Stated adaptations do not correspond well to the historical record of farming practices over the 15 years of the panel. Overall, the evidence suggests that researchers and policy-makers should be highly cautious in their use of subjective perceptions of climate change and the use of adaptation measures based on recall data.I gratefully acknowledge funding from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies for piloting work and from JSPS Kakenhi Grant Number 25101002 for the main eld work.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/munro_alistair

Productivity Growth and Job Creation in the Development Process of Industrial Clusters

経済学 / EconomicsPoor management has long been suspected as a major constraint on job creation in the manufacturing sector in low-income countries. In this sector, numerous micro and small enterprises in industrial clusters account for a large share of employment. This paper examines the roles of industrial clusters and entrepreneurship in improving productivity and creating jobs, by reviewing the literature and case studies, including recent experiments. We find that the managerial capacity of entrepreneurs largely determine firms’ employment sizes, that their innovative capacity is a major determinant of productivity growth, and that entrepreneurship consisting of these capacities boosts cluster-based industrial development.JEL Classification Codes: O12, O31, O32, M20, M50http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/sonobe_tetsushi/http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/otsuka_keijiro

Population Pressure, Rural-to-Rural Migration and Evolution of Land Tenure Institutions: The Case of Uganda

経済学 / EconomicsWhile customary land tenure systems are still prevalent in most African countries, they are believed to be evolving to private land ownership. However, questions about how they are evolving and what determines this evolution remain un-answered. This study contributes to the literature by empirically analyzing the process of the evolution of land tenure systems in Uganda using community-, household-, and parcel-level data. By tracing rural-to-rural migration patterns, we found that immigrant-dominated and ethnically diverse communities have a higher incidence of private land ownership. As an implication of the evolution of land tenure system, we found that land markets are more active in immigrant communities, which enhances efficiency in land allocation through land transactions. In fact, we found a large and significant inverse relationship between farm size and productivity in communities with communal land ownership, and an insignificant relationship in communities with more privately owned land. These findings suggest that rural-to-rural migration, through weakening traditional social systems, promotes the shift from communal to individual land ownership which, in turn, boosts land transactions and efficient land use.JEL Classification Codes: D23, J15, K11, N01, O12, O13, Q15, Q18http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/matsumoto_tomoya/http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/otsuka_keijiro

Financial Integration from a Time-Varying Cointegration Perspective

経済学 / EconomicsThis paper applies a time-varying cointegration (TVC) model to study regional financial integration, measured by the drifting cointegration coefficient of the long-term interest rates between Singapore and Malaysia. Conditioned on long-run exchange rate equilibrium, the evolving relation can be used to test the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) in the strong and weak forms, and examine how the integration changes over time on the basis of the long-term interest rates measure. In the case of Singapore and Malaysia, the findings show that financial integration first decreased after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and then enhanced gradually from late 2001 onward. The shocks to Singapore, characterized by a higher level and a leading effect, are positively correlated with the ones to Malaysia.JEL Classification Codes: C32, F36, G1http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto

The Effect of Male Outmigration on Women’s Empowerment in Nepal

Male outmigration is rapidly increasing in Nepal, leading the amount of remittance inflows to exceed 20% of GDP in 2011. This article examines the impact of male outmigration on women’s empowerment, which is relatively undocumented in the literature. We employ rainfall and an ethnicity-specific migration network as our instruments to address endogeneity in male outmigration. Our empirical evidence shows that married women in households with male outmigrants are less likely to be in polygamous relationships and are more likely to have the final say on their own health issues. However, further investigation demonstrates that these women are less likely to have freedom to visit their family or relatives, which is probably due to increased cohabitation with their parents-in-law.JEL Classification Codes: J12, J16, O15We thank the Japan Society for Promotion of Science for financial support under the Grant-in-Aid forScientific Research (C) Grant (#19K01601).http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/wie-dainn

How Much is TEPCO Worth? –Estimating the Fundamental Value of its Thermal Plants

経済学 / EconomicsThe Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station held by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) had a serious nuclear accident in March of 2011. TEPCO’s liability for the losses caused by this accident is speculated to reach several trillion yen. For this compensation, TEPCO is supposed to sell its assets, including those for its power business. Their sales are crucial for TEPCO’s solvency. We estimate the fundamental values of TEPCO’s thermal plants by modeling their plant operation patterns based on spot market prices and fuel costs. Then, we discuss the implication of their divestiture in the context of the regulatory reforms as a radical path to unbundling.JEL Classification Codes: L94, Q48http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/tanaka_makoto

Network DEA: A slacks-based measure approach

総合政策 / Multi Disciplinary policy studiesTraditional DEA models deal with measurements of relative efficiency of DMUs regarding multiple-inputs vs. multiple-outputs. One of the drawbacks of these models is the neglect of intermediate products or linking activities. After pointing out needs for inclusion of them in DEA models, we propose a slacks-based network DEA model that can deal with intermediate products. Using this model we can evaluate divisional efficiencies along with the overall efficiency of decision making units (DMUs).http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/facultyinfo/tone_kaoru

Tuning SFA Results for Use in DEA

After pointing out shortcomings of the traditional adjustment scheme for combining SFA results for use in DEA in the three stage approach, we propose a new scheme. We demonstrate the effect of this adjustment formula using an electric utility data set.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/facultyinfo/tone_kaoru